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Abstract Dual active galaxy nuclei (dAGNs) trace the population of post-merger galaxies and are the precursors to massive black hole (MBH) mergers, an important source of gravitational waves that may be observed by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). In Paper I of this series, we used the population of ≈2000 galaxy mergers predicted by the TNG50-3 simulation to seed semi-analytic models of the orbital evolution and coalescence of MBH pairs with initial separations of ≈1 kpc. Here, we calculate the dAGN luminosities and separations of these pairs as they evolve in post-merger galaxies, and show how the coalescence fraction of dAGNs changes with redshift. We find that because of the several gigayear-long dynamical friction timescale for orbital evolution, the fraction of dAGNs that eventually end in an MBH merger grows with redshift and exceeds 50% beyondz_dAGN≈ 1. Dual AGNs in galaxies with bulge masses ≲10¹⁰M_⊙, or consisting of near-equal-mass MBHs, evolve more quickly and have higher than average coalescence fractions. At any redshift, dAGNs observed with small separations (≲0.7 kpc) have a higher probability of merging beforez= 0 than more widely separated systems. Radiation feedback effects can significantly reduce the number of MBH mergers, and this could be manifested as a larger than expected number of widely separated dAGNs. We present a method to estimate the MBH coalescence rate as well as the potential LISA detection rate given a survey of dAGNs. Comparing these rates to the eventual LISA measurements will help determine the efficiency of dynamical friction in post-merger galaxies. 

Abstract We evaluate the cosmological coalescence and detection rates for massive black hole (MBH) binaries targeted by the gravitational wave observatory Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Our calculation starts with a population of gravitationally unbound MBH pairs, drawn from the TNG50-3 cosmological simulation, and follows their orbital evolution from kiloparsec scales all the way to coalescence using a semi-analytic model developed in our previous work. We find that for the majority of MBH pairs that coalesce within a Hubble time dynamical friction is the most important mechanism that determines their coalescence rate. Our model predicts an MBH coalescence rate ≲0.45 yr −1 and a LISA detection rate ≲0.34 yr −1 . Most LISA detections should originate from 10 6 to 10 6.8 M ⊙ MBHs in gas-rich galaxies at redshifts 1.6 ≤ z ≤ 2.4 and have a characteristic signal-to-noise ratio S/N ∼100. We however find a dramatic reduction in the coalescence and detection rates, as well as the average S/N, if the effects of radiative feedback from accreting MBHs are taken into account. In this case, the MBH coalescence rate is reduced by 78% (to ≲0.1 yr −1 ), and the LISA detection rate is reduced by 94% (to 0.02 yr −1 ), whereas the average S/N is ∼10. We emphasize that our model provides a conservative estimate of the LISA detection rates, due to the limited MBH mass range in TNG50-3, consistent with other works in the literature that draw their MBH pairs from cosmological simulations.